Vice President Harris’ had a strong performance after the debate last Thursday. She exuded strength and presidential demeanor. She wasn’t afraid to give a relatively blunt assessment of the President’s performance. She didn’t flinch under tough questioning. It was nice to see who she could be if given the chance. As a candidate for the position of Commander-in-Chief, she needs to maintain this show of strength and pivot to defense and national security. She must consistently show that she has one hand on the reins of power and is ready to step into her role as Commander-in-Chief at a moment’s notice, whether or not President Biden steps down. This is the issue I hear over and over about her among Midwestern rural voters.
Rural voters are concerned about national defense and security
As my father did, many continue to refer to the President as the Commander-in-Chief. My father’s view as an active duty Air Force veteran was that the only purpose of the vice president was to be the backup Commander-in-Chief. Anything else the Vice President did just made the office useful and occupied – the nice-to-have things.
A couple of weeks ago a fairly staunch Republican Trump voter had this to say of Biden: “I actually think Biden has done some pretty good things. But I just can’t see Kamala Harris jumping into the role of commander-in-chief.” What is interesting about this comment is that there was an assumption that everyone was on the same page that President Biden will not make it to the age of 86 and that Kamala Harris will be President.
It isn’t that the vice president isn’t good at speaking about defense, it’s that we don’t know because she never does. I hear consistently that the Vice President wants to talk only about abortion and other social issues. And voters have abortion fatigue in the Midwestern swing states where abortion is resolved and legal.
Say what you will about former President Trump, but he does project strength. It is one of the reasons he admires strongmen. Strength sells. As President Clinton pointed out, strong and wrong always beats right and weak.
Vice President Harris can change this narrative
As a former prosecutor she has the right background to change this narrative. It can be little things. Rural voters are concerned that we immediately ran into an ammunition shortage when the conflict in Ukraine began, which is not even our war. A year ago the US was producing 15,000 rounds of artillery shells per month at a time when the Ukrainian army was going through 240,000 rounds per month. We have increased that production to 50,000 rounds per month and expect to be at 100,000 rounds per month by year end. Europe is ramping up production as well. The vice president could be announcing this to show that she’s paying attention to these matters.
Trump’s mention of World War III during the debate was intentional. He knows that the Electoral College voters who matter in the states that matter are concerned about the next war and whether or not we are prepared. His genius is that he identifies these issues and then signals to these voters that he is on top of it. The rural Upper Midwest is over-weighted with veterans. Six of the people I interact with on a daily basis are active duty veterans. Ranging in ages from 25 to 95. I have around 25 relatives buried in our cemetery who were veterans.
I keep a list of every item regarding defense that I hear in casual conversation. The Vice President needs to be able to address any of these issues. A great example of this is when a neighboring farmer asked me if the solar panels in my solar array would be ruined by a daytime EMP blast when a lot of power is flowing. What a good question. Indeed when I took a quick look into this I found that there is EMP hardened solar hardware on the market. Which I don’t have.
Everyday urban America never talks about this. The elites do to a certain extent, but it doesn’t come up in casual urban conversations. This is one of the insights that you get casually only if you are around military and rural voters. The Vice President is in an urban bubble and she is not hearing this narrative every day. If I were auditioning for commander-in-chief I would make sure that my staff had a healthy dose of ex-military personnel.
Several articles I read over the weekend advised the Vice President to lean into abortion. This would be a mistake for her in the upper Midwestern swing states that matter. Michigan, for example, passed a constitutional amendment enshrining abortion rights. Now no one wants to talk about it. You can only sell it once. It did not go over well here when the Vice President announced her abortion tour (not my words) the week before Christmas – when many were preparing to celebrate the birth of a very special baby. It seemed a little tone deaf to me.
Regardless of President Biden’s decision, the Vice President is auditioning for Commander-in-Chief
On the Friday and Saturday after the debate all of my calls were about how excited voters and state-level candidates were about getting a new team on the ticket. Bill Maher made the same point in an op-ed in the New York Times on Monday. My calls the last couple of days have been about who I think will be on that ticket. If the Vice President comes up, it is always about her lack of effective Commander-in-Chief credibility. If President Biden does decide to stay in the game, the only path to victory I can see is if he builds up Kamala Harris into a credible and viable standby commander-in-chief. To remain relevant, whether on the current ticket or a new one, it is time for her to pivot and show her credibility on national defense and security. After all, defense is certainly an “official duty.” While urban voters don’t talk about it, I’m sure many think about it. Strength sells.
Mark W. Yonkman
July 2, 2024